May 2004
The Global Threat of Climate Change
"Humanity is conducting an unintended, uncontrolled, globally pervasive experiment, whose ultimate consequence could be second only to a global nuclear war"
In 1988, the first major international conference on climate change declared that “humanity is conducting an unintended, uncontrolled, globally pervasive experiment, whose ultimate consequence could be second only to a global nuclear war.”
There is much debate about the issues of climate change and the threat that it poses to this world. Tony Blair has said that there is “no bigger long-term question facing the global community”. Even the Pentagon has been heard asking for climate change to “be elevated beyond a scientific debate to a US national security concern”.
The issue must be serious for the Pentagon to make such a stark statement, and it is reinforced by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine’s estimate that 160,000 people are dying each year from the consequences of climate change through drought, famine and disease.
A recent study published in the journal Nature has discovered that a quarter of land animals and plants will become extinct in the near future unless greenhouse gas emissions are significantly reduced. An immediate and progressive switch to alternative technologies that produce little or no greenhouse gases, combined with active removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, could save a million or more species from extinction.
A dramatic report has highlighted some probable global scenarios:
- By 2007 violent storms will make large parts of the Netherlands uninhabitable;
- Britain will have winters similar to those in current-day Siberia (about -40°C) as European temperatures drop off radically by 2020;
- Europe and the United States will become "virtual fortresses" trying to keep out millions of migrants whose homelands have been wiped out by rising sea levels or made unfarmable by drought.
- Catastrophic shortages of potable water and energy will lead to widespread war by 2020.
So, is all this really possible because of a few emissions? Surely a 0.6°C rise in temperature over the past century cannot be the catalyst for all of this? The answer is, without a doubt, no. However, a conference of top climate scientists concluded that previous climate models had underestimated the cooling effects of smoke and other atmospheric particles. If it hadn’t been for the smoky haze from forest fires, coal-burning power stations and gas-guzzling cars, the world would have warmed up nearly 2°C. Now, coupled with the fact that smoke pollution is in decline, the scientists calculated that global warming could rise by 7°C -10°C before the end of this century. Could a 10°C rise in temperature cause such a drastic change in our climate?
It is understood that rising temperatures cause a feedback effect where other global warming sources are “unlocked”. For example, vast quantities of previously frozen methane would be released from the oceans, equal to more than double the world’s fossil-fuel reserves, triggering a heating effect that would be irreversible.
To help you understand what this means, 251 million years ago Siberian volcanoes discharged gigantic clouds of carbon dioxide through massive eruptions. This warmed the climate to an extent where methane was rapidly released from the oceans, leading to a runaway greenhouse effect. In turn, this crisis led to 95% of the world’s species dying.
What does all this mean for you as an individual? Well, the UK per capita emissions of carbon dioxide is running at 9.6 tonnes a year; a “sustainable” quota is estimated to be 2.45 tonnes. This means that each of us needs to reduce our emissions by three-quarters. This is quite a large reduction, and maybe tax breaks and benefits need to be offered to motivate us to do this. If we keep climate issues at the fore of our agenda, then we have a hope of hitting this target.
Consider the ancient proverb: “Never put off till tomorrow what may be done today”. Be proactive and start minimising your environmental impact.
Pro Enviro has developed a range of products and services that address some of the concerns of the report. Climate Change Advantage allows companies to track their energy footprints and more importantly, their carbon output, against the framework of the Climate Change Levy, which was introduced by Government in April 2001. The framework taxes energy intensive industries, but those who meet sectoral targets are eligible for rebates of up to 80%.
Pro Enviro also employs experts in the areas of waste reduction, waste minimisation and energy management. If these products and services are of interest to you please contact us for a no-obligation discussion.
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