July 2007
China Takes Lead From US In CO2 Emissions
This month, the United States has been overtaken by China as the world's biggest producer of carbon dioxide - the main greenhouse gas.
The figures, from an the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, show that China’s CO2 emissions exceeded those of the United States by 8% in 2006 whereas in 2001, the Chinese figure was only 42% of American emissions.
The report was based on data gathered from energy use and cement production. New statistics released in Beijing on Wednesday by China's National Bureau of Statistics show that China's consumption of fossil fuels rose in 2006 by 9.3 percent, about the same rate as in previous years and about eight times higher than the U.S. increase of 1.2 percent.
All of this data was used to calculate a total Chinese emissions figure of 6.2bn tonnes. However, the figures do not include emissions from flaring gas during oil and gas production, from underground coal fires, or from deforestation. Following China was the European Union, ahead of Russia, Japan and India.
Experts have said that this is a natural progression, because of China’s rapid growth over the past decade, reaching double digits for the last 4. Indeed, as late as April of this year, International Energy Agency Chief Economist, Faith Birol, stated that China was set to become the biggest emitter this year or next; up from the previous estimate of 2009.
With a population of 1.3 billion, China's per capita emissions are a quarter of those in the United States, with 300 million people. Thus, although the Chinese are polluting more as an absolute figure, levels are still small when compared per capita. However, the Chinese government’s planning authority has repeatedly stated that the country must focus on development before cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
Despite China’s status is a Kyoto Protocol signatory, it is exempted from many restrictions because it is a developing country. Furthermore, China retains a view that western countries are largely responsible for the already accumulated greenhouse gas emissions and should lead the way in making reductions. Coupled with a reliance on polluting forms of energy generation, ever increasing car ownership, consumer goods consumption and the continued wide scale construction of non-energy efficient buildings, the problem is set to grow.
Elizabeth Economy, an official at the US Council on Foreign Relations has gone on record to say, "if current trends hold, China’s greenhouse gas emissions will likely exceed that of all industrialised countries combined over the next 25years."
Unfortunately, China’s attitude towards growth at the expense of the environment is changing only slowly. Despite the governments diktat that renewable energy sources must provide 10% of all power by 2010 and key industries must reduce energy consumption by 20%, whether these targets will be met is questionable. Indeed, in an attempt to force local governments to obey energy-efficiency edicts from Beijing, the government recently announced that local officials' pay and promotion will be judged in part based on their environmental record, not just their economic success. Nonetheless, with the expiration of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012, the international community may face a real dilemma in trying to limit greenhouse gas emissions.
Birol has repeated the imperative that China must participate in future talks: "without having China on board, without having them play a significant role, all these efforts, none of it, will make any sense."
Experts have suggested that the best way to reduce China’s emissions is through technological engagement. Using Carbon Capture technologies and increasing energy efficiency is the best way to combine development with environmentally sound practice in a way that the Chinese will accept. Only time will tell whether or not this will be successful.
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