What Is To Be Done?
Peak Oil – the temporal when the maximum rate of worldwide petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. Peak Oil news reporting – the perennial news story of new predictions as to when peak oil will be reached.
Richard Branson recently went on record to state his belief that peak oil may occur within the next 6 years, with a huge peak in prices predicted in 4 to 5 years time. However, at the same time, scientists working for the US Geological Survey reassessed previous findings of Venezuela's oil reserves at potentially double those of Saudi Arabia, to stand at around 500bn barrels. Previous figures suggested that 25% of oil in the Orinoco belt would be recoverable and place Venezuela as the world's number 2 oil power after Saudi Arabia, but new reports state that up to 45% of the oil may be technically recoverable.
Presumably neither of the parties had been in consultation with the other at the time, but the constant ebbs and flows of tide in the energy debate can lead to such contradiction, and indeed confusion.
When one looks at the stories though, there is a strong subtext of energy policy and security. Branson's grave predictions appeared against the backdrop of 'sustainable aviation', into which we should read the finding of greener and/or cheaper fuel resources. Whilst not wishing to doubt his green credentials, as operator of an airline, in much the same way as BP or Exxon, there is only so far one can go in this respect.
Similarly, stories about Venezuela's potential oil wealth are not entirely unwelcome in reinvigorating the campaign of distrust, fear and suspicion so expertly stoked in the US and UK media.
Indeed, now that the boot of the seemingly tautologically phrased 'energy power' is on the other foot, we have become distinctly uncomfortable with it. The push to find greener alternatives to fossil fuels is no doubt also part fueled by security fears, and sensible solutions to our carbon reduction quandary in the UK are being hampered by this.
Deputy Chairman of the Russian energy giant Gazprom, Alexander Medvedev, has been pressing western countries to look at energy solutions in a more pragmatic fashion, following the debacle of Copenhagen. The State company, also feeling emboldened the friendly face of the new pro Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, is to play its hand to the fullest extent.
But the backlash to this is that the useful suggestion of replacing coal fired power stations with gas ones, cutting emissions by half, is being rejected out of hand. Fearful of a repeat of the energy crisis experienced in Europe in 2008-09, gas is being viewed as a risky option on a political basis.
Yet gas prices keep on falling thanks to the recession, the CEO of Shell recently announced that the company would soon be producing more gas than oil, and new deposits and transportation routes continue to be established outside of the Russian sphere of influence. And even though reliance on Russian gas may be painted as dependency, a strong European consumer market means increased collective consumer power, as demonstrated by the renegotiation of contracts with Gazprom by ENI and Ruhrgas of Italy and Germany respectively. This notion of strength in numbers is further supported by encouraging interdependency and engagement, making stand offs in the future less likely, or at least more open to compromise on both sides.
So although we still remain unsure in Britain about 'what is to be done?' we should at least keep an open mind. After all, the very idea of intergovernmental cooperation on climate change was premised upon the principle that international interests supersede national ones.
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