UK aviation 'must be given some growth room'
December 8, 2009
Heathrow can expand and people can fly more without ruining the country's carbon targets, says the UK government's official climate watchdog.
It says this means other sectors of the economy must reduce emissions by 90% to allow aviation some room to grow.
But the watchdog insists that the future increase in flying must be limited to 60%, not 200% as projected by the government.
This will mean that a new aviation policy will be needed, it says.
The Committee on Climate Change is an independent body set up under the Climate Change Act to steer government policy.
It previously called for aviation to be brought into the global deal on climate being debated in Copenhagen, Denmark over the next two weeks.
Today's report on UK aviation says improved aircraft design will allow some carbon-free expansion of aviation. High-speed rail would also allow people greater mobility as they get richer.
Video-conferencing had the potential to increase sharply, too, it said.
The committee says taxes will go up as aviation is taken into the EU carbon emissions trading scheme and the price of permits rises to a projected £200 per tonne by 2050. But it warns even this would not be enough to curb our desire to fly, so other measures will be needed.
It does not recommend measures in the report, but the committee has discussed ideas like levying extra taxes and issuing flying allowances.
Privately, members admit taxes would exclude the poorest from the benefits of flying, whilst allowances would be administratively difficult and may smack of social control. Other regulations may be necessary, the committee believes.
Environmentalists will be disappointed the report has not ruled out further expansion at Heathrow.
Committee members say there is over-capacity in some parts of the country and under-capacity in others.
If aviation is to be allowed to grow in a restricted way, the government will have to decide where that growth should happen.
In absolute numbers, the committee's calculations look like this: The aviation white paper of 2003 envisaged growth in passenger movements from two million a year currently to six million a year with rising income.
The committee says allowing 60% growth, the top limit must now be 358 million. It now expects the government to factor these figures into its national aviation policy statement due next year.
The average person in the UK earning more than £60,000 a year flies more than four times a year. The question will be whether they can be allowed to fly still more.
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